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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • Assuming I’m relatively aligned, I think I proc this more or less daily until I either have high risk of death, or things have improved substantially. Each day I should include some random event, like a dice roll or a draw of an MTG hand, so I can measure if the most recent reroll was a + or a -. Also, definitely start living extremely safely.

    Treat base-timeline as 0, and one good proc as +1 (one bad as -1). Then this is a random walk on the integers, memoryless (markov) and balanced (equal odds of going in each direction). This random process tends to end up sqrt(N) away from 0 after N steps are made, revisits 0 infinitely often, and by symmetry is equally likely to be positive or negative. So with daily procs for 50 years, you have a reasonably high chance of reaching +138. So stopping at +80 or +100 feels both achievable and likely incredibly beneficial no matter what the implementation looks like (though you’ll probably spend years at -60 or worse; so safety really matters!).