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Joined 9 months ago
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Cake day: January 30th, 2025

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  • This, people love to think Rome fell because of moral degeneracy and corruption, but that was probably at its height under Commodus or Nero when the empire was very stable and secure. The later emperors were relatively modest and to an increasing degree impotent, so it mattered less if they were incompetent, though many of them were, and that didn’t help.

    The reality is empires all eventually fall, they lose the military edge that won them the empire, either by degrading or the “barbarians” learning and catching up, and the forces that were kept in check by the military tear the empire apart.



  • The actual survey result:

    Asked whether “scaling up” current AI approaches could lead to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), or a general purpose AI that matches or surpasses human cognition, an overwhelming 76 percent of respondents said it was “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to succeed.

    So they’re not saying the entire industry is a dead end, or even that the newest phase is. They’re just saying they don’t think this current technology will make AGI when scaled. I think most people agree, including the investors pouring billions into this. They arent betting this will turn to agi, they’re betting that they have some application for the current ai. Are some of those applications dead ends, most definitely, are some of them revolutionary, maybe

    Thus would be like asking a researcher in the 90s that if they scaled up the bandwidth and computing power of the average internet user would we see a vastly connected media sharing network, they’d probably say no. It took more than a decade of software, cultural and societal development to discover the applications for the internet.